Climate using C14 and solar and geo magnetism,but submitted by a warmista
February 4, 2015 at 9:24 am
Patience Matt, cooling is right around the bend according to my solar-based calculations. There has been just enough solar activity and just high enough solar flux to keep temps fairly flat since 2003, when you take into account previous solar warming of the oceans from the higher flux delivered during the last decades of the modern maximum.
You could look at it this way: Arctic ice began regrowing and Antarctic ice has continued to grow since 2006, three years after the solar modern maximum ended in 2003. How could that happen if warming is supposedly “accelerating”?
The small upwards bump in Dr. Spencer’s UAH graphic above for 2013/14 was caused by the weak SC24 maximum.
Since 2003, the daily solar flux has averaged just 100 solar flux units per day, well below the previous lowest cycle #20, when the daily average for the whole cycle was 113 sfu. We’ve seen a daily average of 103.6 sfu during SC24 so far, which will very likely drop below 100 sfu/day by the end of cycle.
This will have consequences, just as lower solar flux did during SC20, when SSTs dropped below the baseline between 1964-1979.
For mid-Nov 2014 to Jan 2015, the daily ave F10.7cm flux was 163 sfu/day – that’s what warmed up the oceans late last year, and pushed 2014 near the top of the records. The Sun caused the warming, not CO2. The yearly daily average for 2014 was 146 sfu/day, and for January 2015, it was 142 sfu/day.
The USAF here http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt is calling for the next 45 days to have an average of 128 sfu/day. Based on that and the fact that sunspots are now getting very close to the solar equator, SC24 maximum looks to be over now.
There’s much more to say, with plenty of hard evidence, but for today, that’s all.
Like the man said, “Enjoy the warmth WHILE IT LASTS.”
The cause of the pause was the cause before the pause.
from a nice troll who plays well
Let me see if I'm understanding the scenario you are suggesting. For whatever reason, the control rods are failing to keep the core from going critical, so the only thing holding it back is steam voids in the water, reducing the amount of neutron moderation, dropping it just below critical. Then a hydrogen deflagration up in the refueling bay sends a shock wave down, around, and up through the bottom of the reactor through the control rod access points, pressurizing the water, momentarily closing up the steam voids, and in that instant, the core goes critical in some fashion that vastly exceeds any normal sort of criticality the reactor was designed to handle, and this blows the reactor well cap off, at a low diagonal angle, and then nearly the entire core load of fu el (and presumably almost all of the coolant water) is ejected in some manner that proves not especially damaging to the overhead roof truss structure, and in the process, nearly all of the ejected core load is atomized into fine dust which then disperses through several tens of millions of cubic miles of atmosphere.
Does that pretty much capture it? Were there any of those particulars which you reject?
uh ya, and what about that 100,000 lbs of uranium in the air
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