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Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Of 932 Dangerous Near Earth Orbit Space Rocks, What is The Probability That One Hits Earth, and "The Birthday Problem"


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Of the 932 listed dangerous objects, most have a probability of 1 in a million to 1 in billion.

What then is the probability that none of them hit us.   Keep in mind, we might not even know just 1% to 10% of the objects out there.

There is an old probability equation / it says if there are 35 people in the room, what is the chance that 2 people have the same birthday.   You might think the answer is 365 /35 or about a 10% chance.

But that is wrong.   The answer is found by taking each individual person and then calculating the chance that no one else has the same birthday.   Do that for every person and then add up the percentages.

The answer is non-intuitive, and something like a 80% chance that 2 people will have the same
birthday if there are 35 people in a room.   I did the math in a spreadsheet and the odds come out looking like this, the fairly simple formula is below.

Same goes for asteroids....the theory I mean.
\displaystyle{p(n) = 1 - \left(\frac{364}{365}\right)^{C(n,2)} = 1 - \left(\frac{364}{365}\right)^{n(n-1)/2} }

This is the formula for the "birthday problem"

17 comments:

  1. Hey stock, is Enenews down for you? this site says it's down for everyone??
    http://isitdownrightnow.com/enenews.com.html
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes down for the 2nd day< I can actually get some work done, lol

      Delete
  2. A 2 kilometer rock. Got to hope there's no probability of it hitting us.
    Plowboy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. On one pass its 5e-5

      so 5 chances in 100,000

      Delete
  3. I wonder if the ENE hard drive went for a walk. Visiting a prosecutor. Never seen this error before either.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Correct, never seen that error on any wordpress site, and I operate 2 wordpress sites also.

      Delete
    2. Most people don't host on their own computer, they will pay a company like godaddy for hosting services.

      Delete
  4. enenews.com This test says everything is fine: http://dnscheck.pingdom.com/?domain=enenews.com
    Plowboy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, ENENEWS is still down...

      ENENEWS and the two other websites connected to ENENEWS' IP address are also down (Floridaoilspilllaw.com and Martincountynews.com)

      Repeat, all 3 sites are down.

      Therefore, the issue could be a problem at the IP site; whoever is hosting the IP address???

      Any IT professionals out there that can explain this?

      https://www.cutestat.com/hosted-ip/68.169.35.57/

      Does everyone think ENENEWS admin is aware his/her sites are down?

      Delete
    2. I think admin is aware, perhaps truly bought out now.

      Delete
  5. Well, it looks like ENEnews is gone, I think some sort of investigation is afoot with the drive/drives that holds ENE files.

    This error is something one would see if a host made changes that required the client to upgrade some files, the fact that it was not done might tell us someone is snoozing or unaware... but i think that is a show.
    I saw a number of curious comments by the wallpaper expert that make me think she may have been attempting to start shit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ya Anne was an enigma, a definite negative to ENE. ENE is dead and no reasonable alternative.

      Delete
    2. I accidentally posted this in wrong article - sorry ...

      " Hi stock, regarding Enenews being down, the website "fukuleaks" a/k/a "simplyinfo" has a Live + free chat.

      Maybe Enewsers could sign up there to discuss Fukushima?

      Link for chat:
      http://simplyinfo2015.apphb.com/account/login?ReturnUrl=%2F#/rooms/simplyinfo

      And you know about www.caferadlab.com also a good place for discussion.

      What say you? "

      Delete
    3. TY for the reminder on simplyinfo.

      I am busy prepping to wrap up all my activities in Hawaii and consolidate my life, so ENE down frees up lots of my time, LOL, I needed it!

      Delete
  6. Replies
    1. Indeed! I tried finding other forums that had the real time discussion type of venue as ENE, and there was nothing like it.

      WUWT is kind of like ENE, but there is too much group think. And they are 90% pro-nuke, i have to hold my nose.

      Delete

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