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Tuesday, October 17, 2017
Of 932 Dangerous Near Earth Orbit Space Rocks, What is The Probability That One Hits Earth, and "The Birthday Problem"
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Of the 932 listed dangerous objects, most have a probability of 1 in a million to 1 in billion.
What then is the probability that none of them hit us. Keep in mind, we might not even know just 1% to 10% of the objects out there.
There is an old probability equation / it says if there are 35 people in the room, what is the chance that 2 people have the same birthday. You might think the answer is 365 /35 or about a 10% chance.
But that is wrong. The answer is found by taking each individual person and then calculating the chance that no one else has the same birthday. Do that for every person and then add up the percentages.
The answer is non-intuitive, and something like a 80% chance that 2 people will have the same
birthday if there are 35 people in a room. I did the math in a spreadsheet and the odds come out looking like this, the fairly simple formula is below.
Same goes for asteroids....the theory I mean.
This is the formula for the "birthday problem"
Posted by Stock at 8:11 PM