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Monday, October 28, 2019

Earthquake Knowledge Is Huge -- Fukushima Was Predicatable -- There Was a Market "Tell" -- Yet They Will Never Warn The Little People

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so how did I take this name?   I traded the markets, many of them, developing advanced technical analysis (chart analysis) tools that no one else had.   I played the game until I realized the super computers were now gaming the system on a very wide basis.   They would intentionally create classic patterns to get technical traders to enter either a short or long position, then they would run it the expected way, encouraging traders to not just keep their positions but to add to it.   Then they would rapidly blow it up, causing huge losses.  

So I stopped.   But during Fukushima, and actually right before Fukushima, the Nikkei had a "tell".   It had become obvious to me, before that, that the markets often predicted reality, at least the reality that was public news.    The knowledge of earthquakes is very large, and yet their ability to predict earthquakes seems to be almost nil.   Now that citizen scientists, with NO FUNDING, can out do USGS and others with funding of hundreds of millions, you got to ask WHY?

I am hesitant to dive into too much "classic" earthquake thinking, because I feel there is a large chance that it will keep me from a major breakthrough on earthquake prediction.   You can rest assured that if a major quake were imminent, they would error on the side of "let's not cause panic", so the only hope is for Citizen Scientists to carry the load.   

I discovered a long term predictor for massive earthquakes along the Japanese coast.

When there is a large lull in EQ activity south of Honshu, south of the Bonin islands, then when the activity starts up again, is a predictor of a very large EQ.   See OP here

And prior to Fukushima, "they" knew something big was underway, for up to 8 days.   The Fukushima mayor admits it in this OP article here.

There is a timeline video of the precursor EQ, and the thousands of after shocks.

But look at the amazing knowledge displayed in this "event" summary.   And yet they seem to know nothing.    USGS went on record this year as stating, "we really can't prove that there is any link between Vulcanism and Earthquakes.   My oh my, how lame they are.

Event ID: usp000hvpg

03/11/2011 06:25:50 UTC usp000hvpg
38.059°N 144.640°E
M 7.7 – Off the east coast of Honshu, Japan

Depth 18.6 km
The March 11, 2011, M 7.7 earthquake near the east coast of Honshu, Japan occurred as a result of shallow normal faulting within the oceanic lithosphere of the Pacific plate, approximately 60 km east of the Japan Trench. Focal mechanism solutions indicate that rupture occurred on either a north- or south-striking, moderately dipping normal fault. Slip on a fault aligned with either nodal plane is consistent with the intraplate setting of this event. At the location of this earthquake, the Pacific plate moves roughly westward relative to the North America plate at a velocity of 70 mm/yr, and begins its westward descent beneath Japan at the Japan Trench. Note that some authors divide this region into several microplates that together define the relative motions between the larger Pacific, North America and Eurasia plates; these include the Okhotsk and Amur microplates that are part of North America and Eurasia, respectively.
This earthquake occurred approximately 40 minutes after the devastating March 11, 2011 M 9.1 Tohoku earthquake. This 06:25 UTC earthquake can be considered an aftershock of the 05:46 M 9.1 event, despite occurring on a different fault structure (on a normal fault directly east of the subduction zone, rather than on the subduction zone interface). Over the 2 days preceding the March 11th mainshock, a series of large foreshocks had occurred, beginning on March 9 with a M 7.3 event approximately 40 km from the epicenter of the March 11th M 9.1 earthquake, and continuing with another three earthquakes greater than M 6 on the same day. Prior to March 9th, the Japan Trench subduction zone had hosted nine events of M 7+ since 1973.
While commonly plotted as points on maps, earthquakes of this size are more appropriately described as slip over a larger fault area. Normal-faulting events of the size of the March 11, 2011, M 7.7 earthquake are typically about 90x35 km (length x width); interference from the previous M 9.1 event makes modeling its source dimensions complicated, and as such a slip model is not available at this time.
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