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Saturday, March 14, 2020

Pandemic Math Using Real Data Show the Contagion Factor to Be As High as the Worst Measles ---R sub O=16 (Contagion Value)

The Italians are providing detailed data in real time.  Bottom line....this CV19 is on the high side as infectious as measles.   At R=16, not 2.4 and some are claiming.

I am throwing down right HERE, RIGHT NOW.    This has the potential to be a real pandemic.
1) It is super contageous R=16
2) Because the leftist are trying to pin Bad Stuff on Trump, many pro Trumpers are thinking that this whole thing is overblown, over reported, and just bullshit.

Number 2 makes it even more dangerous.   Believe me, I understand all three sides of the argument.   Maybe that's 4 sides.....2 sides are the data, one being can you believe the raw data, and other, how badly are they lying about the raw data. 

My it safe, for now.   I went to the athletic club today, 80% of normal, and weird atmosphere, most people being more polite and friendlier than normal, and its a fairly friendly place.
I will finally set up the resistance training infrastructure of my "sports room". 

I may put the membership on hold for a month.....

I am using Mike Adams original spreadsheet, with quite a bit of trust and not checking much assumptions….but he also set up a radiological testing lab, so he must have some of his act together…..

I added the charts, which are essential for observational data assessment.     

And it does not look good, to go from 221 cases in 19 days to 19,000 (even assuming a massively successful social distancing of 75%, requires R subO contagion factor of 16….but China and others claiming 2.4.   

Collegues have suggested that is similar data that is assumed reliable from other countries, matches these growth rates, then more credibility in both the testing and models is justified.   I really wouldn't even search for the China raw data...unless you assume they are uniformly derating the results by a factor of 10 every day.  


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