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Friday, March 27, 2020

Update On Italy SARS-2 Virus, Unique Methods of Analysis

stock here.   Italy's "exponent" is really a multiplier, but as a longer sequence can be called an exponent.     My model, the 2 Day Leap, Takes Today/"2 Days Ago" total cases,  and then extrpolates that forward, while assuming a continuing decrease in the exponent.   See table below

Decreasing exponent good....increasing bad.   Italy is now in a decreasing exponent phase.

My prediction for Italy total cases today is

It became increasingly obvious that analyzing this Mini-P (coined it just now), some are calling it the Plandemic.....that analysis by using total case numbers was not the best. 

I had built a model to predict the upward swing of case numbers, and it was and is a really freaking good model, at least for Italy in which the data was compiled quickly and presented daily in multiple categories, and was easy to grab and put into a spreadsheet. 

CDC data, by comparison is horrible, it almost has to be by intention.

There is also a VERY SALIENT point....death rates compared to total cases, especially on the fast upswing side of the "curve" are very misleading.     It takes time to die.   It takes 5 to 12 days to show symptoms, but some of the "cases positive" are found even before the 5 days.   And then it takes12 to 24 days to either get better....or still be under treatment....or die.   

So there is a huge lag whilst total cases is skyrocketing up.    It would be more accurate to compare, current deaths, with total cases from 12 days ago...and then correcting with some factor that a lot of people who have SARS-2 have never had a test, they are just sick and just went into isolation to treat their sickness.    Percents or multipliers on that is anyone's guess, I haven't seen any attempt at that guesstimate.  

Data up to yesterday.

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