Decreasing exponent good....increasing bad. Italy is now in a decreasing exponent phase.
My prediction for Italy total cases today is
It became increasingly obvious that analyzing this Mini-P (coined it just now), some are calling it the Plandemic.....that analysis by using total case numbers was not the best.
I had built a model to predict the upward swing of case numbers, and it was and is a really freaking good model, at least for Italy in which the data was compiled quickly and presented daily in multiple categories, and was easy to grab and put into a spreadsheet.
CDC data, by comparison is horrible, it almost has to be by intention.
There is also a VERY SALIENT point....death rates compared to total cases, especially on the fast upswing side of the "curve" are very misleading. It takes time to die. It takes 5 to 12 days to show symptoms, but some of the "cases positive" are found even before the 5 days. And then it takes12 to 24 days to either get better....or still be under treatment....or die.
So there is a huge lag whilst total cases is skyrocketing up. It would be more accurate to compare, current deaths, with total cases from 12 days ago...and then correcting with some factor that a lot of people who have SARS-2 have never had a test, they are just sick and just went into isolation to treat their sickness. Percents or multipliers on that is anyone's guess, I haven't seen any attempt at that guesstimate.
Data up to yesterday.