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Thursday, April 16, 2020

Italian Model Exactly on Target, All Clear by Cinco de Mayo, Huuwah!

stock here.    On March 29th, I published my best Italy Model, calling for Italy to "win" hit peak on April 6th, and be all clear by May 5th (Cinco de Mayo)

That post was here 

The New Model shows the same result, but not as steep of a fall off....go with the best numbers you have.    In the old model I was using total deaths to plot.    A much better metric is Daily Delta Deaths, and my new models use that whenever possible.  

I also created my first Excel macro last night before the vodka kicked in, and automated the whole data processing of model making including the exponents....I still have to blank out some fields (like div by 0) and sometimes move or modify the date data, but it's pretty quick now.....10 minutes to published data.   

Poor CDC with only $8B at their disposal, can't keep up with some guy literally in his basement.

Also cool about the model below....I backtested the model and it works pretty good.   The exponents are different on the runup and the downfall, as that reflects how real life seems to work.

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