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Thursday, April 9, 2020

Thoughts on SARS-2, Herd Immunity, Why Does a Country "Get Past This", R-naught

A thought came to me…..the declining exponent of this thing, when only a very small fraction of citizens have it (apparently)…..seems odd.  

Herd immunity creates a r-naught that goes below 1 and therefore it does not spread much, certainly does not “go viral”

But classic thinking is that herd immunity requires about 60% of the population to have it. 

My initial research using the modified Mike Adams model, gave me at R-naught around 16 or 18

Measles is 12 to 18

I later reduced my R-naught to 14.

The establishment is STILL saying R-naught around 2.4!!!!    But clearly they are on a misinformation campaign.   They want people confused.  

60% of USA is 200M.   We will be at peak in 7 to 20 days == R-naught less than 1.    Implies 200M cases

So it is like out of 50 people who have this, only 1 shows symptoms?

USA total Tests = 2.3M………………….if only 20% of the suspicious ones are positive, than how can USA be approaching the 200M needed for herd immunity (R-naught failing below 1)

Total Cases .462M

Something is rotten in Denmark.

Stock out

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