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Thursday, May 28, 2020

Estimates of Economic and Other Activity Using Google Mobility Data

stock here.   At ZH I saw an Asian firm making broad speculations about a "second wave" based upon "Mobility Data".

Click on chart for a larger view 

Chart shows Wisconsin still down 20% to 35% in the economic categories.


OK nice idea, but they should address more important consideration of herd immunity.

AND they are missing the boat completely in terms of a "second wave".   In the Spanish flu, cities that started mitigation quickly, and ended mitigation quickly did the best in both lower deaths, and better economic outcomes EVEN IF there was a second wave.

So many flawed conclusion are drawn by those either with and agenda or lack of a critical eye.   Such as St. Louis and Colmbus  are routinely lambasted for their quick end to mitigation (flavors of modern day 'lockdown' meme and narrative)....but their overall death numbers were VERY GOOD in relation to the rest of the USA.  Even though they had a second wave.

Additionally, A test check against other conventional measure of economic activity should be done to see how well the Mobility Model works.

So here is Wisconsin.   The chart are compared to baseline.  They don't say baseline month to month, or month to average over the year, I think the parks data is overblown.

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